The short answer is: I don't know. This has been a hot topic as of late and I think it's worth taking some time to delve deeply into the issue to provide some concrete analysis for and against Tim's viability as an NFL QB.
I have heard many self-anointed NFL draft gurus (Mel Kiper, Todd McShay etc.) discuss the matter recently and I am utterly amazed at the certainty with which they dismiss Tim's NFL prospects. Lets run through the pros and cons for Tebow:
PROs:
Very Athletic. Tebow has revolutionized the QB position, set the SEC single season rushing TD record, has the all time rushing TD record at Florida (broke Emmit Smith's record, not too shabby) and has been called by many the best short yardage running back in college football. Enough said here, no need to overstate the obvious.
Playmaker. Tebow is probably better than any QB in the country at making something out of nothing. He is incredibly difficult to sack/tackle and is truly artful at getting outside of the pocket and making plays both with his feet and his arm.
Intangibles (i.e., leadership). See the Alabama game and you tell me if there's a better leader in the country. The guy is not afraid to get in anyone's face (Brandon Spikes included) and challenge them to raise their level of play. His characther is second to none. Tim's work ethic is notorious and is as much a part of his legend as anything else. Loved that story that came out stating that while in high school (i.e. before he enrolled) he was at the UF training facility and asked Urban Meyer what the leg press record was at Florida and summarily proceeded to break it right then and there in the middle of the night (think about all the defensive and offensive lineman, linebackers etc. that ever played at Florida and this kid, a QB none the less, while still in high school was strong and determined enough to keep pushing until he had the record).
He was also listed as second on the team on the bench press last year (i.e. out of all the players on the team, he could rep 225lbs on the bench press more than all but one other player). He also was an absolute monster in the circle of death drills. For those of you who don't know, during practice Meyer will call out 2 players, stop all practice and form a cirlce with the entire team watching as the two players attempt to drive each other out of the circle by any means necessary (think high impact collisions and hand to hand combat combined with greco roman wrestling).
All these events allow him to lead unlike a traditional QB. QBs usually lead b/c of the position they play and are respected but in a different manner than Tebow. Tebow is respected not just as a QB but as a Football player...his toughness, grit and work ethic are what allow someone like Brandon Spikes to take instruction from Tebow.
Durability. At 6'3 240lbs after 3 years in the SEC carrying the load (and often the entire team) Tebow has proven that he can take a pounding and be counted on to play in every game.
CONs (alleged):
Slow Delivery. This infuriates me. So somebody decided that they didn't like his delivery motion and this single factor has been referenced ad nauseam to justify his inability succeed at the next level. What does this mean anyway? Lets say that the average delivery time (i.e. amount of time required once the mind has decided to make a throw for the arm to follow through) is .3 seconds and Tebow's is .4 -- is this really a deal braker? What, some corner is going to get a jump his routes and pick off balls that he otherwise wouldn't get if Tebow's release was one tenth of a second faster? I recall Elway having an elongated throwing motion and he did just fine. Also, it's something he can work on. The kid is 21 years old after all. Besides, he's been in the top 5 in the country in passing efficiency rating for the last 2 years (i.e. he's been one of if not the best "passer" in the country over the last two years, again, this has nothing to do with his running ability, we are talking about his QB rating).
CONs (alleged):
Slow Delivery. This infuriates me. So somebody decided that they didn't like his delivery motion and this single factor has been referenced ad nauseam to justify his inability succeed at the next level. What does this mean anyway? Lets say that the average delivery time (i.e. amount of time required once the mind has decided to make a throw for the arm to follow through) is .3 seconds and Tebow's is .4 -- is this really a deal braker? What, some corner is going to get a jump his routes and pick off balls that he otherwise wouldn't get if Tebow's release was one tenth of a second faster? I recall Elway having an elongated throwing motion and he did just fine. Also, it's something he can work on. The kid is 21 years old after all. Besides, he's been in the top 5 in the country in passing efficiency rating for the last 2 years (i.e. he's been one of if not the best "passer" in the country over the last two years, again, this has nothing to do with his running ability, we are talking about his QB rating).
Runs the Spread Offense. OK, this seems valid on some level. No team in the NFL runs the spread. But then again, they said it wouldn't work in the SEC when Urban brought it over and clearly it has. Teams in the NFL are now running the wildcat, maybe it's the next evolutionary step in the NFL Game? Is that really such a crazy concept? At one point teams only ran the wishbone remember? The Spread is all about isolating your best players in space and trying to find mismatches. Yes, the defensive personnel in the NFL is elite but so is the offensive personnel. You're going to tell me that it's a bad idea to get Adrian Peterson or Percy Harvin matched up against a linebacker in space? That's all the Spread is trying to do. Also, even if it doesn't work at the end of the day football is football, it's about passing and running with the football and just because Tebow has done this undery one system in a certain way while in college doesn't mean he couldn't adapt to a pro set.
Operates solely out of the shotgun, doesn't take snaps from under center. This one really irks me also. So Tebow is incapable of taking a snap from under center along with a 3 or 5 step drop before passing the ball? Please, we are talking about one of the best athlete's ever at the position...trust me, he can take a god damn snap from under center and walk back 6 feet. Lets just stop bringing this up as an issue, seriously, it's absolute lunacy. I will drop kick the next person who brings this up a la Shawn Michaels a.k.a the Heartbreak Kid.
Arm Strength. Some question Tebow's arm strength. I don't know -- some of those lasers he was zooming in the Alabama game certainly pass the eye test for me. I really don't think this is much of an issue. Does he throw a pretty spiral? No. Does he have an arm like Matthew Stafford? No, no one does. But the real question is does he need that to succeed in the NFL. Absolutely not. Think Montana, Manning, Brady....not particuarly blessed with cannons...would anybody say they were not good QBs? There is so much more to the position than sheer arm strength (starting with making good decisions). Point in fact, look at the Florida/Georgia game this year, Stafford threw more pics in that game than Tebow has all season. Tebow's arm is strong enough to make every NFL throw and he has some very nice touch on the ball when needed (in fact, I would say he throws one of the better deep balls in the country).
Accuracy. Hello?!?!?! The guy completes nearly 70% of his passes and does not throw interceptions. That is the sheer definition of accurate. Sure he doesn't make every throw but who does?
Frankly, I think his passing ability is overlooked because he is such a superior athlete. It's easy to overlook how good of a passer he is when he is doing things rushing the ball that have never been done at the position. Do I think he can have similar success running the ball in the NFL? Clearly not. But do I think it will still be an asset to have Tim Tebow on 3rd and 3 when you need to pick up a tough 3 yards to get a first down? Absolutely. My overarching theme here is that I don't know whether Timmy is going to be a good NFL QB...it's the most difficult position to project...but I certainly wouldn't categorically dismiss his ability to succeed in the NFL outright. Mel "the Klown" Kiper projecting Tebow to play H-back or Tight End in the NFL is simply insulting. It would be a travesty if somebody as accomplished as Tebow doesn't get at least an opportunity to prove himself at Quarterback in the NFL. For god's sake look at some of the stiffs starting in the league today.
As always, his likelihood of success will depend more on the type of system he falls into and what the surrounding circumstances are with that particular team (i.e. does he have to learn a new offense every year b/c the team is bringing in a new offensive coordinator, does he go to a team with a good o-line and with solid playmakers or does he end up in somewhere like Detroit where virtually anyone is destined to fall flat on his face)? The point is it's simply irresponsible to dismiss Timbow's ability to be an NFL QB and any so called "expert" who does so has his head up his ass.
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21 comments:
"Wall Street" Gator is a FRAUD! he does not work on wall street. he works in fucking long island--what a zero.
suck it Anonymous.
I thought this was a pretty good analysis of Timmy. There's a lot of buzz about whether or not he'll be a good NFL QB but shouldn't we all be asking IS HE STAYING FOR ANOTHER YEAR OR IS HE OUT?
p.s. the fact that Timmy can leg press and bench press more than most is so friggin hot. Great little fun fact. I will definitely be throwing that around.
are you serious? tenths of a second suddenly don't matter in football now???
last time i checked, everything in football related to speed is timed in HUNDRETHS of a second – because every inch matters.
using your example, let's look at the impact of tebow’s slow release, saying tebow takes an extra 1/10 of second to get the ball off:
an NFL qb with good arm strength throws a ball about 55 mph. That is 80.67 feet per second, or 8 feet per 1/10 of second.
Say tebow and another qb have equal arm strength, both at the solid level of 55 mph. if they both threw passes to a WR running the same pattern, the tebow pass would be 8 feet, or nearly three yards, behind the other QB’s ball. That is a TON of extra time to break on the ball for any NFL DB.
Whether tebow release is 1/10 of a second slow or not I don’t know, but I do know this demonstrates this blogger is a moron and never stepped foot on a football field.
it's a bad sign when you have to pump up a QB's pro prospects by referring to his rushing TDs, bench press and leg press.
i think he can be a successful fullback in the NFL (see kendra, who nearly made the transition).
Everyone continues to fixate on the purported "slow release". First of all, the one tenth of a second was purely exemplary and completely arbitrary (i.e. I pulled it out of my ass). It can be less or more, I am not sure. I don't know if those metrics by Gator Scientist hold water but on a first glance what he said sees to make sense. Of course if it's actually 1/30th of a second slower and not 1/10th than the gap would be significantly smaller and thus the "slow release" would be less of a factor. Regardless, the main point is that this is ONE of many factors and it's not as if this is something that can't be worked on. I am sure as Tebow continues to progress this is something he will work on. GatorScientist also doesn't take into account the ability of a QB to throw to a spot (i.e. anticipate where the receiver is going and throw the ball before the receiver makes his brake, much like a Marc Bulger does). This would also mitigate the slow release effect. I just don't see how you look at all the pros and cons and this "slow release" issue tips the scales for you against Timmy. In aggregate, if you look at everything he is bringing to the table you have to think he has just as good a chance as any other quarterback in this class.
Here are two words "Chad Pennington", horrible, miserable arm, no strength, ugly spiral, yet incredibly accurate and extremely responsible with the ball. Tebow is by far the most coachable athlete ever. Anonymous and Gator Scientist, I think it were best if you never posted again EVER. Keep it going Wall Street Gator.
Yes, Chad Pennington, a model for NFL QB's.
Wall Street--the point was not whether the slow release criticism was valid or not. it was to demonstrate that you are a moron. the justification you attempted to use to make your point actually disproved your own contention and, as you said, was "pulled out of your ass." the issue speaks to the poor credibility of the author providing us with clearly garbage analysis, nothing about tebow.
Scientist -- once again you demonstrate the reading comprehension aptitude of a 3rd grader. For the last time, my point is that this one issue which every talking head on ESPN is throwing around without any specifics should not be a fucking referendum on Tebow's ability to succeed as an NFL QB. If they would provide some concrete empirical evidence on his release time I wouldn't have to pull numbers out of my ass. Go back to playing with your bunson burner you dork.
Long Island is the new Wall Street.
Tebow will continue the streak of great UF quarterbacks in the NFL.
"The point is it's simply irresponsible to dismiss Timbow's ability to be an NFL QB and any so called 'expert' who does so has his head up his ass."
Scientist = Expert
Gator Scientist's expert analysis = _________________.
Let's play fill in the blank.
Gator Scientist's expert analysis= divides 80 feet per second to give us 8 feet per tenth of a second, thanks for the physics lesson.
I don't know which was a more eye-opening experience, reading his analysis or getting a hummer from a tranny.
Im not a tranny
Hello fire, meet fuel.
Go Make Him Mad.
Go Gators.
the scientist sounds like a total fucking loser and I'd like to shit down his dork mouth but you are not seeing his point.
he is not questioning tebow's release or saying whether it should be or should not be discussed by "experts." he is questioning the reasoning abilities of Wall Street gator, who made a case for why the release issue should not be in the discussion.
the dork completely deconstructed Wall Street's central argument on this point.
McHale--My apologies for using numbers for context in a discussion on sports. You are right, the facts and figures are pesky and boring.
Someone call Michael Lewis and tell him he is a moron.
Just spoke to Michael Lewis. As a former Wall Street banker himself who never stepped foot on the football field, he agrees with Wall Street Gator's analysis. Thanks
Mchale was pointing out your amazing math capabilities. Yes, 80 divided by 10 is 8.
Lewis is not a sports analyst, nor does he claim to be. he points out how people that do not effectively use metrics often believe in false paradigms for success, and to their detriment.
your reasoning ability is as sharp as long island wall street's, who argued that a tenth of a second does not matter in a passing play. an amazing display of incompetence on multiple levels.
morons.
My repeated use of the word moron is quite moronic, right?
I mean, I know I'm a huge moron. In fact, I'm a really unoriginal moronic moron.
I should change my name to Moron Scientist due to my moronic comments and because I'm such a moron.
If you want to change your name, moron, you can do so by registering where it says "Choose an identity."
Go Change.
Go Gators.
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