The Line Is Drawn.

The line is now at 10 and holding. That's a line I can place some faith in (read: $$$).

It all comes from scoring difficulty, which is why it is often said that defense wins game/championships. I will take that premise as the fundamental assumption of the following analysis.

The hardest thing to score is a touchdown, so naturally, it gets the highest point reward. This is followed, arguably, either by a 2-point conversion or a long (college long: 40+ yards) field goal. Last, of course, is the point-after-touchdown, yielding the lowest point reward: 1.

How does this apply to the 10 point line?

In order for bama to meet the point deficit predicted by the Vegans, they would have to score a td, kick a PAT, and a field goal.

Or, they can score four field goals.

Or, two touchdowns, missing two PAT's.

One way of interpreting the line is to say that scoring a touchdown is difficult for the tide. It can be deduced then that scoring a 2-point conversion must be almost equally difficult. It's unlikely that the tide would go for a 2-point conversion to win the game, the risk his too when a PAT would achieve a tie. Let's assume they don't go for a 2-point conversion.

So then, let's take the scenario of one td, a PAT, and a field goal. This would total 10 and tie the game.

The Gators' opponents average 12.2 points per game. So let's grant bama one touchdown, and say it comes down to the kicker, as it usually does in big games.

The tide need a field goal. The tide is 17-25 for the year. Their kicker is 6/7 of 20-29 yds; 8/10 of 30-39 yds; 2/5 for FG of 40-49 yards; and 1/2 over 50 yds, with one blocked. The tide has even replaced its starting kicker before to come in to kick a field goal that was 30-39 yards. He missed. The Gators do a great job of blocking field goals (see, generally, Jarvis Moss - Cock Block '06). The Gators' opponents are 10/14 in field goals. Such numbers do not bode well for bama should they keep it close, which is the present prevailing strategy of experts for bama to beat the Gators. I think most agree that the tide cannot trade td's with Florida.

By contrast Florida is 10/10. Yes, a low number, but a perfect one. Look at the distances: 5/5 of 20-29; 4/4 of 30-39; and 1/1 of 40-49. Nothing too difficult, perhaps unimpressive, but, then again, we're not analyzing the Gators' field goal efficiency, it's just fun to see how perfect the Gators are.

Moving along, a field goal and a touchdown only gets bama to 9 points. To tie they need to kick a PAT. We've discussed the field goals, let's look at the PAT.

The tide are 42-44 95%. Not a lot of misses, but look at the madness that the Gators' only missed PAT caused-- a loss. But the analysis doesn't end there. While bama may be good at hitting PAT's, the Gators' are among the nation's elite in defending them. Opponents are 13-16 81% against the Gators' special teams. The tide's opponents are 100% against their special teams.

In conclusion, if it comes down to a field goal, the tide is in trouble. If it comes down to an extra point, then the Gators might be in trouble, but, consider that in order for the game to come down to a PAT, the tide would have to have scored a touchdown-- a much harder task for the above-mentioned reasons. I think it seems as if the Vegans don't believe in the scoring ability of the tide, even if they keep it close.

Any other thoughts?

Go Gamble.

Go Gators.