Bet Your Ass.

Le line has moved up to 5. That's up from earlier this week when the line was 3 and later 3.5 What does that mean? Does it mean we're more likely to win? Does it mean I should get an advance on my financial aid and let it ride? Perhaps. Perhaps not.

I've been under the common misconception that the point spread represents the amount of points the oddsmaker believes the favored team will win by. With this thinking the line seems to show the Gators are more likely to win the game than the Laters. This is true, but only to an extent. 

I decided to take a break from taking a break and did some research on how all this line-making nonsense works. 

Let's start with the beginning. First the line must be made. This is done by oddsmakers. The  Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LSVC) is the oddsmaker for Sportsbook.com and other books on the interweb. Typically, there are 3-4 oddsmakers for each sport. So for college football there are 3-4 people making the lines for every game. 

Every oddsmaker ascribes a power rating to a team. For instance, let's say the Gators have a power rating of 100 (an arbitrary number). This rating is based on the team's history, statistics, inside information on player injuries, and a host of other shit any degenerate bettor would kill to have. Once each oddsmaker arrives at a team's power rating, and after doing some basic reconnaissance on the teams through reading local newspapers and coach and player interviews, the oddsmakers finally modify the spread to set the opening, or preliminary line.

Now, it's important to understand what the line is attempting to accomplish. The ultimate goal of the oddsmaker's line is to equally "divide the action". The action is the betting. In other words, the oddsmakers are attempting to attract equal betting on both sides. So if the Gators are favored by 5, then the oddsmakers believe that a 4.5 point spread is a sufficient amount of points to entice and stimulate bettors on both sides. That is, people on either side think that 5 is the breakpoint where people will bet against or for a team to win. This hedging guarantees the book a profit because of the juice they charge for each winning bet, which is generally 10%.

After the line is made, the betting begins. The line is adjusted according to the bets coming in, common sense, and intuitive inklings. For instance, the opening line favored the Gators by 1 or 1.5, I think. Barring injuries, arrests, or anything else, the line will remain unchanged by those factors. However, the Gators are presently favored by 5 points. That means that over about the last month the line has moved up 3.5 points. Why? Money, of course. The reason the line moved up is because people were betting on the Gators to win and the oddsmakers wanted to more equally divide the action to attract Laters' bettors, and therefore make more money.

One can conclude from the above-mentioned that the Gators are more likely to win the National Championship than the Laters. This is a reasonable conclusion, but bear in mind that the betting that's happening is a reflection of what team the bettors believe will be the victor, not the oddsmakers. 

In my opinion, the opening line is the most reliable measure of the oddsmakers' beliefs on who will win the game. I believe this because the preliminary spread is predicated on the oddsmakers' power ratings ascribed to each team. The power ratings are a score of what team the oddsmaker believes is better. Yes, being better doesn't necessarily mean going to win. But, it's a helluva a better metric than betting tendencies.   

This is good news for the Gators since the line opened with the Gators favored, which, it stands to reason that the Gators scored higher on the power ratings. Granted the line was minimal, but it's better than nothing. If you're curious and wanna read a bit more on this, check here to read basically what you just read in a bit more detail.

Fact is that you should bet now, because it appears the line is moving on up to the eastside, to the deluxe apartment in the sky.

BTW, the over/under is 70.5.

Go Bet.

Go Gators.